When I talk with struggling traders I can sum up most of their issues in one word...MINDSET. Of course, the right methods, training, technical skills and market knowledge are all a must when it comes to successful trading but I think many underestimate the value of also working very hard on creating a positive environment in the mind. After extensive research I have learned that the mind can be trained for success. So what is success ? According to Earl Nightingale, the "Dean of Personal Development", it is...the progressive realization of a worthy ideal. In essence, if you have a goal to be consistently profitable as a trader and are doing the things necessary to become such, you are already a success. Many times as humans, we get ahead of ourselves. In this age of microwaves, fast food and internet access we have forgotten that patience is still a virtue. Why is it that 95% of those who enter the arena to become a trader fail ? Well, there can be many factors but I truly believe that it comes down to one major thing...a deep belief in their eventual triumph. I liken anything worth while in life and especially trading success to the planting of a garden. We do not see the fruit of our labor immediately. It takes a true commitment on our part. We must prepare the land, plant the seed, water it regularly, keep out harmful agents, and be patient for the growth. The plants do not develop on our time scale but rather in the amount of time nature has decided. However, the laws of nature say that if we do what is necessary we will see the plant come to maturity and then can enjoy the end result. Much like the garden in the physical realm, we must plant that seed of belief in our minds and take great care to let it grow. How can one do that? I have found that reading quality materials, finding a mentor to guide the way and writing down your goals and plans are essential. In many vocations, especially trading we need a support structure. When a new tree is planted most times it needs a support structure until it is mature enough to stand on its own. We are no different. Since trading is almost all mental, we can second guess our abilities, our commitment and even our self worth. However, by feeding our mind things like books that detail the successes of other individuals, songs that motivate us to succeed and continually verbalizing our belief in ourselves as no less qualified to be successful than those who have attained it, we will begin to shape our mind and prepare for the end result...a profitable trading portfolio. I also think that a mentor who has achieved the success we desire is paramount to our development. The mind can be a very difficult animal to tame, but it can be done and YOU are worth the effort.

USD/CAD Poised for a Rally?

I have been watching the USD/CAD with great interest over the last several months. The Canadian dollar has been near par with the USD for the last several months getting at close as the 1.02 handle. As of this writing the pair is trading at 1.0517. The EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF have all been hammered against the dollar the last few weeks, yet the CAD seems to be holding it's own. I feel this is because OIL has held it's support at the 70.00 mark per barrell. I have posted an OIL chart to "explore" the possibility that the USD/CAD and AUD/USD could be lagging behind Euro and Pound. If this head and shoulders comes to fruition, this could be the turning point for the commodity pairs in a good dollar rally. I realize the dollar has rallied already against many other currencies but not the commodity pairs. After attending the Trading Expo in NYC, I heard some very sound fundamental analyst predict a major dollar rally, giving very good reasoning for such. I don't forecast what may happen, however, the technicals could be giving us a hint to what may be coming. If OIL and GOLD begin to fall as some predict, then the USD/CAD will rally and the AUD/USD will fall. I will reserve my judgement for a later date, but it seems quite interesting to view the possbilities.

U.S Dollar Strength Still on the Horizon

I have been attending the Trade Expo here in New York City. It is the first time I have visited the big apple and let me say that it has been a very pleasant experience. After attending several "workshops" I gained some information I thought you might want to know. Several of the analsysts for large trading firms were commenting on this years forecast for the U.S. Dollar. Their forecast is very favorable for dollar strength. The reasoning behind this can get quite complex so I will try to condense it down.
One major factor is the verbal positioning of certains members of the Federal Reserve. Some members are moving away from the view that interest rates should be held at near 0 levels. With this new positioning, the dollar could continue to rise on rumors of higher rates instead of actual news. China also plays a part in the game (don't they always?), by tightening their fiscal policy and slowing down the growth of their economy, thereby reducing the chance that the commodity countries would raise their rates (such as Australia). If China slows growth, they would not need the commodities countries like Australia would provide and that woud slow Australia's growth in turn. Slow growth usually means lower interest rates. Ah, and there is the infamous EURO. It has fallen sharply and one analyst predicts it could see .90 again. .90???? Are you kidding me? Well in trading ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.For now the eye is on Greece and what is developing between them and the Eurozone. Greece didn't show up at a meeting this week concerning eurozone  policies and so that does not look favorable for this situation. Some Eurozone officials sense that Greece doesn't want the aid and if they can't work out a deal for the needed stimulas the EURO could really see some more depths agains the dollar and other currencies.

We can only gather this information and then use it as a tool to constructively try to place trades in the direction of the overall sentiment in the market. If you trade a 5 minute chart, this information should not affect you very much, but if you are a swing trader, you may want to take note that the EURO could see much lower prices when doing your analysis. And as the EUR/USD goes, so goes many of the other pairs which means a stronger dollar overall.


AUD/JPY VIDEO EXAMPLE: Longer to shorter TF's


USD/CAD Possibility of Head and Shoulders

4 Hour time frame on the USD/CAD shows a possible head and shoulders pattern. This could give way for
a pull back to 1.0413 which in my opinion would be a good place to buy for a longer term move. I would love to get into a position trade on this pair as I could see it heading back to 1.10 or even higher.

AUD/USD...Waiting on a nice Pull Back

Many market analysts thought the RBA would raise rates yet again but it was not to be. This is why you never trade what you think, but trade what you SEE. Forecasting the market is alot like forecasting the weather. Meteorologists scurry on television to give us the up to the minute forecast, many times in error.
The weather is a force much greater than anything we can predict many times and the market is no different.
While we can be on the right track much of the time, it is better to let the decisions be made by the movers then take positions based on that. For those who held long positions thinking that the RBA would raise rates, they are taking the hit. I prefer to think of it as an even better opportunity to buy. The .8550-80
range to me would be a nice area but .8200-.8350 to me would be a great bargain. I do forsee that if any of
the Central banks start to increase rates steadily, the RBA makes the best case at this point given their solid
economy and being commodity driven. AUD/JPY carry traders could also benefit from a deepen pull back in the AUD. We will all have to see what shakes out and make our decisions accordingly. I like bargains! :)