In my opinion, the key to trading is learning how the market moves and adapting to it's environment. Support and Resistance are the heart of that movement, but there are other little "quirks" that you must pick up on as well. I will try to point out a few of those, if not in this post in others, however, the best thing you can do is get a lot of chart time viewing price behavior at critical levels. Combining this with patterns and fibonacci is how I find trades. When searching for a trade I look for:
- Longer term key price levels using weekly, daily and 4 hour charts
- The sentiment of the market by reading reports and talking with other traders
- Economic reports that might move the market
- Ranges that the market may be trading in at the moment or could break out of
following example of the USD/CHF can help illustrated what I mean. After the NFP report was released I was looking at a level for a possible bounce (1 hr chart). Many traders place trades trying to predict what the market is going to do . I have come to realize I can't "KNOW" what the market is going to do or which trades I take are going to offer good profits for certain. All I can do is trade what I see. The price behavior approaching the 1.0872 level on the this pair was kind of
"creeping" up to the level (5 min chart). Please note this was before the spike on the 1 hour chart. It came within 10 pips or so but it wasn't showing any weakness. As a matter of fact it had cleared another level at 1.0855 and was now using it as support (another trade within itself). A times when asking Chris "what do you think about a long at this price or a short at this price?" and he would say, " I will watch price around the level." I would come away shaking my head and think "what does he mean, watch price?" Well, now I know. You see, just because you have a level does not mean you should trade it every time. In my opinion, you should let the price behavior tell you whether or not to take a trade. On the USD/CHF trade set up, price really showed me that it wanted to go through the level I had eyed. It came within 10 pips and formed a trading ranged just beneath it. Think about it this way, if you trade S/R levels and it forms S/R just beneath where you would anticipate a bounce, what is likely to happen? It will likely use that as S/R again. If you view the 5 minute chart you can see that's exactly what it did. So does that mean the level is invalid and cannot be traded at all? NO. You see, when you observe price behavior there just wait and be paitient to see if price is going to hold or reject the level. It's a very good way to get a good fill and put the odds of low drawdown in your favor. With this set up happening on Friday we don't know how the level will play out, but look how it did come back below the 1.0872 and start holding there. Price will most times tell you if it is going to commit above a level or not just by observing price action. Chris, BRV (nobrainertrades.com), you and I can all use different methods for our entries, or our money management approaches and our trading techniques, but one thing is for sure, price has a behavior, and if you really want to cut your losses short and let your profits run, then learn the true nature of price, in the NOW, and you will achieve much more than success, you will have mastered of your skill.
