DANIEL S FOREX

2011-04-16T10:05:00.001-04:00

Welcome and thanks for visiting this site. I created this site in an effort to share with developing and aspiring traders some of the techniques and methods that I use to trade profitably in the forex market. The information provided here is intended to be a tool used in conjuction with other educational materials or courses that you may have taken or are in the process of taking now. This site started several years ago as more of a personal journal for me and has evolved into what it currently is. Feel free to check out the archives as you will find trades that I actually placed in the market along with attached chart images.

New Year, Same Goals- Consistent Market Profits

2011-01-08T19:10:00.004-05:00

2010 is history and a new decade has now begun. For many folks, new year resolutions now come into focus and high standards are set. Of course, many of the goals that are established are never fulfilled and totally disappear or they are put off to the next year or the next. I am sure you are aware of this as it may have happened to you as well. Maybe you have even had some trading goals set as resolutions and they fell by the wayside through the struggles of a tough trading year. Perhaps exterior factors and cirumstances took your focus off of the goal and you just quit trying to attain it. Or, maybe you feel like the bar was set too high and you just couldn't reach it. Whatever the reason, here we are again at a time when you may be setting your sights on trading consistency. Let me give you this admonishment. GO FOR IT AND DON'T QUIT!
I can personally attest that reaching the goals you set is usually a daunting task. The whole purpose of a goal is to get us to work and stretch ourselves to reach something of real value to us. Without a goal we just move along aimlessly without any destination and end up with no true satisfaction.

Thinking of goals brings to my mind the time that I had a term paper to write. At the time I was a 10th grader and in search of a worthy subject, I chose to write about the comparison of two Olympic track athletes. The 1984 Olympic games had just been conducted the summer before and Carl Lewis had matched the accomplishments of 1936 Olympian Jesse Owens in winning 4 gold medals. Both of these men faced fierce competition and mental obstacles. Jesse Owens, a young black american, had to compete in Germany while Adolph Hitler was in power. He had to battle not only against other athletes that felt superior because of race, but against an entire political establishment and some in the world that felt the same. He proved them wrong by winning a record 4 gold medals and dominating the games. In 1984 Carl Lewis set his sights on attaining the same number of medals as Owens and reached it. If I remember correctly, I wrote to prove that Jesse Owens had many more factors against him than Carl Lewis did in setting those records and his accomplishment was harder to secure. I am not here to argue that point again, but rather to emphasize the importance of setting a goal and working your butt off to achieve it, no matter the odds.

We all know the odds in trading...only 5% or less actually succeed in making money, but does that mean that we can't or shouldn't be in that 5%? I am sure Jesse Owens felt at times that he couldn't reach the lofty goals he had set for himself but in the face of extreme circumstances and adversity he accomplished something only one other man has been able to do since. If Jesse can go into a stadium filled with racist bigots along with their psychotic leader and perform at his greatest, then you can attain your goals in trading. No, trading is not easy but anything worthwhile doesn't come easy. The key to trading success is a continued effort to find something that clicks with you and you must not place a time limit on finding it. Once you learn how the market works, then you must start the quest to find the trader inside of you. I truly believe that if your will is strong enough, you can find what you are searching for.
I urge you to write your goals down and keep track of your progress. Continue to work hard and focus on doing things with simplicity. Develop a plan based on back testing and chart time and once you have written it out, STICK WITH IT. Visualize your success day after day and focus on the goal rather than the obstacles. Make 2011 the year that you have a break through in your trading, and even if you are already consistent in your results, raise the bar for yourself so that you can continue to become the best you can be.

I wish you all the best in your trading and in your lives for 2011. My hope is not only that you reach your goals, but that you far exceed them.

Risk Warning. Trading foreign exchange on margin or forex managed funds carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. past performance does not guarantee or imply future success. You can not assume recommendations made in any part of this mail or site will be profitable.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. This site is purely for educational purposes and not intended to be advice to take any positions in any market instrument.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAM

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold www.danielsforex.blogspot.com of this information harmless in any and

TRADING ALL NIGHT

2010-05-17T19:41:00.001-04:00

A few weeks ago, me and several of my trading colleagues got together for a night of trading during the London opening session and into the U.S morning session. Of course, this may not be a big deal to those of you who live in Europe, but for us living in the EST time zone, it is a totally different story. As traders for the last several years, we all have come to terms with this and it isn't such a big deal anymore. I think it is important to interact with those in the trading community. Whether it be in an online forum, in a local "Meet Up" group or if you are currently trading with personal friends, it helps to meet with other like minded individuals who share your vision for success. I am fortunate to have built an alliance with some successful guys. We are all at different stages in our trading. Some of us are full time traders and others are still developing their trading models and approaches, however the goals are all the same; to become the best traders we possibly can be. What is important about interaction with traders is not that we need to copy what they do or clone them, but actually find out what they are thinking, why they are thinking it and how that might be an advantage to them or us, or quite the opposite. It puts perspective on what we are doing here. It also gives an outlet to be honest with those who understand you the most...other traders. Just like the market, we all have our ups and downs. We wonder why our model isn't working in the current market conditions. We struggle with confidence issues from time to time. We need someone to bounce ideas off of or get another view of the current market sentiment. Then there are times that we just need a pat on the back for working hard, placing good trades and following our trading plan. It's all about our humanity and the need for human interaction with those who share our passion for the markets. I can say that the guys I have been fortunate enough to meet through trading and who I constantly communicate with have supported me in ways that only other traders can appreciate and have added value to my life that only I can truly appreciate. I would like to offer my thanks and although all of traders I have built relationships with are not pictured here because of geographical obstacles that kept them from attending, you know who you are and I say, "Thanks to ALL of you for being part of my team".

Pictured from left to right...Andrew D, Rodney G, Wilmont B, Andrew C, Ryan B and myself.

CLOSING THE WEEK AT A HIGH OR LOW

2010-03-15T06:33:00.001-04:00

Five years of observing the Forex Market nearly everyday at what seems hours on end will bring you to certain conclusions. Of course, most traders with any amount of experience will come to many of the same conclusions however there are certain little nuances that may slip by many. One such quirk I have noticed is how the market will close the week at the high or low and then at the opening of the following week will more often than not retreat back inside of the previous week's range. The EUR/USD 4 hour chart shown here will show three such instances in the past several weeks. What causes this to occur should be no mystery. The large institutional firms are like anyone else in that they do not want to be overexposed and like to trade the probabilities. With a new week comes new data to digest, new sentiment based on economic factors and as human nature would have it, a weekend will usually help to subdue any news hype that occurred the week before. These statements are merely my opinion but have basis in the facts that I have studied, but isn't trading about opinions anyway? The opinions of analysts, traders, fund managers, and even political figures are many times what shape the market as we know it...i.e. jawboning. One thing I do know to be fact however, is the many times that a currency pair will close at it's week's high or low on Friday, only to open on Sunday testing but rejecting those previous highs offering a great opportunity for some profits. It's not 100% but show me one thing in this market that is. Again, this is only my observance but I would suggest that you look back and judge for yourself.

KEEPING TRACK OF YOUR PROGRESS

2010-03-10T06:55:00.000-05:00

I recently finished reading the book "Stock Market Wizards" by Jack D. Schwager. In this book Mr. Schwager interviews 12 professional traders. All of these traders come from different backgrounds, engage in different market instruments, have many various techniques and strategies. All of them are very successful at managing not only their own funds, but many also manage very large funds for private and institutional investors. Aside from the requirements that any trader must abide by...self discipline, risk management, preparation, and sound technical knowledge, there was something that many of them did to greatly improve their trading results. One particular trader interviewed in the book is Mark Minervini. During his interview he began to talk about how tracking his trades actually helped him improve in his trading. Even after he had been involved in the market for several years, he decided to do a running analysis (journal) of his trades. He found that he was cutting most all of his winners off too short and letting his losses go to far. By one simple change, capped his losses at 10%, he could have improved his trading profits by 70%! Also by keeping consistent data on his trading results, he realized the by closing a losing position at 10%, he would not have to stay in the market waiting on that position to realize a profit and he would have more capital should another trade present itself. I think this is an eye opening revelation that is not stressed in many of the courses or workshops taught today. In my educational experiences, the importance of keeping track of your trading progress is mentioned but not emphasized. Well, I am telling you now, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO YOUR SUCCESS. How can you correct something you are doing wrong and improve upon it if you don't know what the problem is?

What should you write in your daily journal? First, you should write down the things you observe. If you see a particular pattern starting to develop on a certain currency pair, write it down. Track the results of that pattern including any details you observed such as the time frame, how long it took for the pattern to emerge and what size stops or limits you should use if you were to trade this pattern. I personally feel that keeping a journal or "paper trading" as many call it, is the best way to improve your skills in the market. You should write down any trade set ups you see happening in the market. Write down the price level, the factors you see that should cause this scenario to occur, your stop and limit and the time of day or session. Then, come back to the charts hours or even days later to see how it all unfolded. This will either build confidence in your method or show you where you need improvement. Once you establish a method that produces consistent results, you can always refer to your journal as a morale booster to prove that over a series of trades, you are profitable more often than not, and now you can use that conviction to engage in the market suppressing many of your emotions. You will know where your stop needs to be, where your profit targets should be placed and many times even know the probabilities of one set up versus another. The trading effeciency that I now enjoy all started with a simple daily journal started several years ago that I still refer to today.

EUR/USD Higher to Lower TF's

2010-03-03T18:06:00.002-05:00

MINDSET IS THE KEY FOR TRADING SUCCESS

2010-02-23T05:11:00.001-05:00

When I talk with struggling traders I can sum up most of their issues in one word...MINDSET. Of course, the right methods, training, technical skills and market knowledge are all a must when it comes to successful trading but I think many underestimate the value of also working very hard on creating a positive environment in the mind. After extensive research I have learned that the mind can be trained for success. So what is success ? According to Earl Nightingale, the "Dean of Personal Development", it is...the progressive realization of a worthy ideal. In essence, if you have a goal to be consistently profitable as a trader and are doing the things necessary to become such, you are already a success. Many times as humans, we get ahead of ourselves. In this age of microwaves, fast food and internet access we have forgotten that patience is still a virtue. Why is it that 95% of those who enter the arena to become a trader fail ? Well, there can be many factors but I truly believe that it comes down to one major thing...a deep belief in their eventual triumph. I liken anything worth while in life and especially trading success to the planting of a garden. We do not see the fruit of our labor immediately. It takes a true commitment on our part. We must prepare the land, plant the seed, water it regularly, keep out harmful agents, and be patient for the growth. The plants do not develop on our time scale but rather in the amount of time nature has decided. However, the laws of nature say that if we do what is necessary we will see the plant come to maturity and then can enjoy the end result. Much like the garden in the physical realm, we must plant that seed of belief in our minds and take great care to let it grow. How can one do that? I have found that reading quality materials, finding a mentor to guide the way and writing down your goals and plans are essential. In many vocations, especially trading we need a support structure. When a new tree is planted most times it needs a support structure until it is mature enough to stand on its own. We are no different. Since trading is almost all mental, we can second guess our abilities, our commitment and even our self worth. However, by feeding our mind things like books that detail the successes of other individuals, songs that motivate us to succeed and continually verbalizing our belief in ourselves as no less qualified to be successful than those who have attained it, we will begin to shape our mind and prepare for the end result...a profitable trading portfolio. I also think that a mentor who has achieved the success we desire is paramount to our development. The mind can be a very difficult animal to tame, but it can be done and YOU are worth the effort.

USD/CAD Poised for a Rally?

2010-02-19T06:55:00.001-05:00

I have been watching the USD/CAD with great interest over the last several months. The Canadian dollar has been near par with the USD for the last several months getting at close as the 1.02 handle. As of this writing the pair is trading at 1.0517. The EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF have all been hammered against the dollar the last few weeks, yet the CAD seems to be holding it's own. I feel this is because OIL has held it's support at the 70.00 mark per barrell. I have posted an OIL chart to "explore" the possibility that the USD/CAD and AUD/USD could be lagging behind Euro and Pound. If this head and shoulders comes to fruition, this could be the turning point for the commodity pairs in a good dollar rally. I realize the dollar has rallied already against many other currencies but not the commodity pairs. After attending the Trading Expo in NYC, I heard some very sound fundamental analyst predict a major dollar rally, giving very good reasoning for such. I don't forecast what may happen, however, the technicals could be giving us a hint to what may be coming. If OIL and GOLD begin to fall as some predict, then the USD/CAD will rally and the AUD/USD will fall. I will reserve my judgement for a later date, but it seems quite interesting to view the possbilities.

U.S Dollar Strength Still on the Horizon

2010-02-17T11:16:00.000-05:00

I have been attending the Trade Expo here in New York City. It is the first time I have visited the big apple and let me say that it has been a very pleasant experience. After attending several "workshops" I gained some information I thought you might want to know. Several of the analsysts for large trading firms were commenting on this years forecast for the U.S. Dollar. Their forecast is very favorable for dollar strength. The reasoning behind this can get quite complex so I will try to condense it down.
One major factor is the verbal positioning of certains members of the Federal Reserve. Some members are moving away from the view that interest rates should be held at near 0 levels. With this new positioning, the dollar could continue to rise on rumors of higher rates instead of actual news. China also plays a part in the game (don't they always?), by tightening their fiscal policy and slowing down the growth of their economy, thereby reducing the chance that the commodity countries would raise their rates (such as Australia). If China slows growth, they would not need the commodities countries like Australia would provide and that woud slow Australia's growth in turn. Slow growth usually means lower interest rates. Ah, and there is the infamous EURO. It has fallen sharply and one analyst predicts it could see .90 again. .90???? Are you kidding me? Well in trading ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.For now the eye is on Greece and what is developing between them and the Eurozone. Greece didn't show up at a meeting this week concerning eurozone policies and so that does not look favorable for this situation. Some Eurozone officials sense that Greece doesn't want the aid and if they can't work out a deal for the needed stimulas the EURO could really see some more depths agains the dollar and other currencies.

We can only gather this information and then use it as a tool to constructively try to place trades in the direction of the overall sentiment in the market. If you trade a 5 minute chart, this information should not affect you very much, but if you are a swing trader, you may want to take note that the EURO could see much lower prices when doing your analysis. And as the EUR/USD goes, so goes many of the other pairs which means a stronger dollar overall.

LIVE TRADES 2-9-10

2010-02-09T13:15:00.001-05:00

AUD/JPY VIDEO EXAMPLE: Longer to shorter TF's

2010-02-06T20:36:00.007-05:00

VIDEO UPDATE ....TWO TYPES OF TRADES

2010-02-03T23:27:00.004-05:00

USD/CAD Possibility of Head and Shoulders

2010-02-03T21:57:00.000-05:00

4 Hour time frame on the USD/CAD shows a possible head and shoulders pattern. This could give way for

a pull back to 1.0413 which in my opinion would be a good place to buy for a longer term move. I would love to get into a position trade on this pair as I could see it heading back to 1.10 or even higher.

AUD/USD...Waiting on a nice Pull Back

2010-02-02T07:14:00.000-05:00

Many market analysts thought the RBA would raise rates yet again but it was not to be. This is why you never trade what you think, but trade what you SEE. Forecasting the market is alot like forecasting the weather. Meteorologists scurry on television to give us the up to the minute forecast, many times in error.

The weather is a force much greater than anything we can predict many times and the market is no different.

While we can be on the right track much of the time, it is better to let the decisions be made by the movers then take positions based on that. For those who held long positions thinking that the RBA would raise rates, they are taking the hit. I prefer to think of it as an even better opportunity to buy. The .8550-80

range to me would be a nice area but .8200-.8350 to me would be a great bargain. I do forsee that if any of
the Central banks start to increase rates steadily, the RBA makes the best case at this point given their solid
economy and being commodity driven. AUD/JPY carry traders could also benefit from a deepen pull back in the AUD. We will all have to see what shakes out and make our decisions accordingly. I like bargains! :)

BE PREPARED!

2009-09-24T11:42:00.004-04:00

In my experience as a currency trader over the last 4 years, one thing that I always have to be aware of is my preparation when it comes to my plan. Of course, I have certain criteria and parameters when it comes to my trading method but if I am not prepared to engage in market action then I am asking for disappointment to say the least. When I say "be prepared" what exactly do I mean ?, you may ask. Well, in a moment I will give you an example of one instance where I did not properly prepare myself for a profitable trade. The use of tools such as computer hardware and software have become a very good aid to the trader. One tool that I use quite often is alerts to my cell phone. It goes without saying that anything is possible so therefore, we must be ready for the market at all times. Creating alerts near our pre-planned entry prices can keep us aware of the market even when distractions occur. If, however, we think that a certain price level will not be achieved by the market and do not expect it by setting an alert, we may find that we will miss out on many good opportunities to extract profits from the market. This week, I had such an instance happen to me. I was watching the USD/CAD pair rally in the face of a very bearish longer term flow. I was prepared to trade short at 1.0840. Take a look at the 1 hour chart I posted. This was the high of the week...within a few pips anyway, but I missed the trade. I stepped away from the PC and didn't set an alert. I didn't think it would reach that level that day. WRONG! You see, I let my "thinking" interfere with my plan. Don't be like me...LOL, at least in this instance. Always be prepared and if I would have set an alert, I would have taken this trade. Lesson learned!

LOOK FOR SUPPLY/DEMAND... AUD/USD

2009-08-21T12:34:00.005-04:00

Everyone who knows me realizs that Chris Lori's methodology is the standard by which I trade.

Additionally, I have looked at other views of S/R (price action) trading and learned a few tips there as well. One such tip, of which was brought to my attention by a fellow trader Rob Manheimer is the idea of supply and demand. Of course we all know that supply and demand is what makes any market place run. Without either of them and we have a one way street. From this supply (short) or demand (long) we can learn to identify such areas on charts. One thing to look for is a consolidation and a quick departure from that area. So, if we are looking to short, we want to trade it at the base of the supply area of which it fell from, better known to many as a fractal. From the contributors of this idea, the key here is how quickly it came out of that price base. Looking at the AUD/USD one hour chart, I located one such area and just put my line there earlier today for a possible short trade. To be quite honest, I didn't think this pair would reach there today as it had already traveled quite a distance when I examined the chart. Well, as we all know, the market can do anything and proved it yet again to me today. I did place a couple of other trades and wasn't focused on this pair but wanted to post it as to how clear this was. It lined up nicely with the 79% retracement of where the move intiated downward and came all the way back up to test the base area. I have found that these trades can really offer some nice profits. Usually, price is going to have trouble getting through the consolidation, and in this case it is just above the price base we are looking at selling into. We can have a good stop above the consolidation and with the other factors of this pair really being overextended on the day and a key fib level, this gives us a highly probable set up.

GBP/USD Trade I MISSED BY 4 PIPS :-(

2009-07-09T15:06:00.006-04:00

Wicks or candle bodies, bodies or candle wicks? It seems there is no true answer to this question. On strong moves the price will many times come back to the wicks of resistance/support before continuing, especially on smaller time frames, but for me, I guess I would rather get a good fill and wait for it to tag the bodies of the candles. On this particular set up, we had broken the range and I was looking for a retag at 1.6125, which was kind of in between the tops of the wicks and the bodies of the candles as seen on a 15 minute chart I have posted. Steve W. in the no brainers chat was looking at this as well. I had my limit in, but missed by 4 pips. Of course, the aftermath of this trade is beautiful, but it didn't meet my criteria so I moved on. The 1 hour chart shows the range it broke out of and where I was trying to catch the trade. There's always NEXT in this market, and as a matter of fact, took a no brainer trade at 1.6304 that paid and am currently in a short at 1.6361 of which I am in profit, so no harm no foul...still it would have been nice to nail this home run. UPDATE...I closed out 80% of my position and am hoping for this to fall back in the range.

6-24-09 GBP/USD TRADE

2009-06-24T10:41:00.003-04:00

Today with FOMC on tap and other reports coming out, it was a little sketchy trading but as the old saying goes, "trade what you see" was in the back of my mind when I took this trade. In my mind it's all about trading at the right level at the right time and managing a trade properly. As I watched this pair, I saw the flows on the day seemed to be changing. We closed below last weeks high with a bearish engulfing candle. I scaled down to a 5 minute to see the last TSR areas and found two. The minor one at 1.6529 had more confluence with the retest of a broken trend line and 50% retrace of the last move down, so I liked that area more. With this pair especially, you can get a "bleed through" to a minor level or last dealing range. The trade set up, I took it and it paid. As of this writing it was trading at 1.6508. Two trades like this per day will do nicely. :-)

COST OF DOING BUSINESS

2009-06-17T16:32:00.010-04:00

While having a chat with a trader yesterday the subject of losses came up. This particular trader summed it up pretty well by saying, "to me a loss is just a business expense." That simple statement had profound meaning to me. Every business has a "cost of doing business" factor in their business model. They allocate for travel, office supplies, employees, benefits, utilities and other expenses. There is a predetermined budget for each of those items. In the good times the budget may grow and in slow times it will likely shrink but the point remains the same. After these costs are factored in, a company expects to show a profit monthly, quarterly and yearly. Why should it be any different in trading?...yet many traders focus on the losses rather than the overall picture. As traders we will incurr losses. How we manage those losses is, of course, up to us, but we can cut the loss short or let it run to our full stop loss. I guess that would depend on your style and methodology. My point here is that we are going to have losses so accepting them simply as costs of doing business it can totally change the perspective. A loss becomes less painful and more accepted, allowing us to concentrate on the big picture of making money based on our overall performance monthly, quarterly and yearly. Maybe we should change the terminology from loss to expense. Hmmmm, "I had 3 profitable trades and one expense today." Sounds better already.

THANKS ROB!

2009-06-15T08:50:00.002-04:00

This morning I was watching the GBP/USD and noticed a nice range that we could get a break out of. Rob, a friend of mine who trades with me from time to time noticed the break at a time that I was doing something else. He pm'd me and we both took the trade. My fill was at 1.6359.

This type of trade gets to the heart of what TSR is all about. If you traded the wicks here, your fill would not be as good. Of course you would have still made profit on the trade, but you would have suffered some draw down. I realize that trade management is the key, but the better fill you can get and the less draw down you have, the more likely you are to stay in a trade. Really, there were no strong longer term levels concerning this trade. Rob and I saw a range, and traded what we saw. I show a 30 min chart here which gave me confirmation to take the trade. The candle closed above the range and then on the 5 minute chart you can see the entry. It got a little hairy when the 5 minute closed right near my entry. As I took the trade, that candle was not closed as of yet. After I got another surge toward 10 pips I had made up my mind to exit the trade if it came back to my entry. Fortunately for me, I got a surge into the 20's and took the majority of my profit. I guess this trade is about as simple as it gets using TSR. The bulls won this battle, now to the next one.

MY APPROACH

2009-06-05T14:44:00.012-04:00

I have not posted anything on the blog in quite some time, but because some have asked to know more about the methodology by which I trade I thought it might be helpful to write about the methods I use. I may be repeating myself from earlier posts but afer all, repetition is how we become succesful. First of all let me say (for some who may not know) that the foundation for my trading comes from my mentor and friend Chris Lori. The techniques Chris uses and teaches were introduced to me after I had searched and tried many "systems" that never worked for me. Chris taught me to trade based on price, and nothing else. I have attended several workshops with Chris and after purchasing his video course I went to my first workshop. Unfortunately, I had "learned" better and thought that the more difficult a system was to implement, the more money you would make and didn't implement the methods Chris taught right away. I could not have been more wrong. I still struggled and lost money. One thing that Chris teaches is having strict discipline with your plan and I didn't want to use discipline. I wanted to be in the market all the time like a gambler at a craps table. After observing other traders who implemented these methods, I finally realized that I must do what they were doing if I was to succeed . I have been trading the methods from Chris now for three years and I will say that I do not think there is a better method. Let me emphasize, however, that I had to come to terms with my own psychological weaknesses and address them for ANY method to work for me. It was only when I also decided to do that very thing that my trading turned the corner. Now I can say that my account is growing steadily and even though I have struggled at times, I realized that the method of trading price based should remain the same.

In my opinion, the key to trading is learning how the market moves and adapting to it's environment. Support and Resistance are the heart of that movement, but there are other little "quirks" that you must pick up on as well. I will try to point out a few of those, if not in this post in others, however, the best thing you can do is get a lot of chart time viewing price behavior at critical levels. Combining this with patterns and fibonacci is how I find trades. When searching for a trade I look for:

Longer term key price levels using weekly, daily and 4 hour charts
The sentiment of the market by reading reports and talking with other traders
Economic reports that might move the market
Ranges that the market may be trading in at the moment or could break out of

Once I have got my mind wrapped around my trading environment I will look for convergences at a certain price levels. The more reasons I have that a level could offer a good trade, the better. However, that doesn't mean I don't change my mind. This is where price behavior becomes the only indicator you need to determine if your trade set up is still valid. I consider the volatility and the "energy" price has displayed many times to make my decision on placing a trade. The following example of the USD/CHF can help illustrated what I mean. After the NFP report was released I was looking at a level for a possible bounce (1 hr chart). Many traders place trades trying to predict what the market is going to do . I have come to realize I can't "KNOW" what the market is going to do or which trades I take are going to offer good profits for certain. All I can do is trade what I see. The price behavior approaching the 1.0872 level on the this pair was kind of "creeping" up to the level (5 min chart). Please note this was before the spike on the 1 hour chart. It came within 10 pips or so but it wasn't showing any weakness. As a matter of fact it had cleared another level at 1.0855 and was now using it as support (another trade within itself). A times when asking Chris "what do you think about a long at this price or a short at this price?" and he would say, " I will watch price around the level." I would come away shaking my head and think "what does he mean, watch price?" Well, now I know. You see, just because you have a level does not mean you should trade it every time. In my opinion, you should let the price behavior tell you whether or not to take a trade. On the USD/CHF trade set up, price really showed me that it wanted to go through the level I had eyed. It came within 10 pips and formed a trading ranged just beneath it. Think about it this way, if you trade S/R levels and it forms S/R just beneath where you would anticipate a bounce, what is likely to happen? It will likely use that as S/R again. If you view the 5 minute chart you can see that's exactly what it did. So does that mean the level is invalid and cannot be traded at all? NO. You see, when you observe price behavior there just wait and be paitient to see if price is going to hold or reject the level. It's a very good way to get a good fill and put the odds of low drawdown in your favor. With this set up happening on Friday we don't know how the level will play out, but look how it did come back below the 1.0872 and start holding there. Price will most times tell you if it is going to commit above a level or not just by observing price action.
Chris, BRV (nobrainertrades.com), you and I can all use different methods for our entries, or our money management approaches and our trading techniques, but one thing is for sure, price has a behavior, and if you really want to cut your losses short and let your profits run, then learn the true nature of price, in the NOW, and you will achieve much more than success, you will have mastered of your skill.

11-24 EUR/USD Trade

2008-11-25T07:29:00.009-05:00

While vacationing with my family, I sat down at my laptop yesterday evening and pulled up a EUR/USD chart. I skyped a fellow trader to ask what the stimulant was in the market that caused such a bullish move today. He informed me that Citi had been bailed out and that the market liked it. Stocks up....Eur/Usd up, that seems to be the theme over the last few months. I started looking to see where a possible bouce could occur. I went to the 4 hour chart and noticed that although we have had several attempts at the 1.2950 level, we had not quite "reached" it over the last few weeks once it broke. It also lined up nicely with the 62% retracement of the swing of the high at 1.3295 to the low of 1.2388. Looking at the 1.2950 I could see a very nice TSR area where support and resistance was evident. I was watching price when it was at 1.2912, waiting for a surge up. It was sitting right near the previous week's high at 1.2926 and in the past I would have traded it there. I really wanted to see it surge through to the 1.2950-60 level, and it did. I had an order at 1.2956 but did not get filled there. I watched price and when it did not hold above that level, I traded a pull back at 1.2942. My drawdown was very small and within an hour or so I had profited and left some in the market in anticipation that this might be a good pull back for a lower move. No one knows at this point and that's why I only have 10% remaining in this trade.

UPDATE ON 11-19 EUR/CHF set up

2008-11-23T07:44:00.002-05:00

Although I did not enter this trade ( I guess I should be called bonehead now) price certainly did what it does the majority of the time and would have paid a nice profit. I had some things to do and did not have the time to manage the trade but I also have been very respectful of late to this market. The EUR/CHF , however, seems to be honoring most of it's levels even when many of the other pairs are very irratic. The USD/CHF trade that I was tracking did not honor the level I was watching on it, but then again, the only thing I had to go on was a weekly chart so bleed through should be expected. The GBP/USD never got to the level so there was no trade there.

11-19 Pairs to Watch

2008-11-19T05:26:00.012-05:00

There could be some possible trades developing. After reviewing a few charts this morning, a few pairs grabbed my attention. The first is the GBP/USD. If we should get a rally, the 1.5373 price level has a good confluence of fibs and a good support level. On the down side, if we were to get a drop to 1.4663 this also seems to be a likely area for a bounce. I am seeing some signs of bullishness but in this uncertain market where the dollar seems to be the safe haven currency, it's just a matter of wait and see.

Looking at the EUR/CHF pair something interesting to me is happening as I write this. We have had a close above previous resistance and now are revisiting the TSR area at approximately 1.5208. There has been one bounce at this level already by looking at the 15 minute chart so I am watching to see if this level will continue to hold or give way once again. This price level is key on the daily chart as it was previous support that became resistance last week and now is support yet once again, at least at the moment. The USD/CHF has been travelling up a trend line showing possible signs of weakness and right against a weekly support area near 1.2089. I will be watching to see if price breaks above and holds there or can finally break below this very strong trend line and break down some key levels.

Know When Not to Trade... Know Yourself

2008-11-18T18:49:00.007-05:00

The past several weeks have been frustrating as a trader, to say the least. All traders spend their time analyzing the market so that when an opportunity presents itself, they are ready to capitalize. In the current market conditions, however, there are not too many opportunities. Over the last several months I have kept track of possible set ups and trades that have presented themselves. The problem has been that they seem to be few and even those that do present an opportunity may have one second guessing it's validity. Chris warned of this thin liquidity months ahead, but I don't think even he thought it would continue for this long. Not only are we in very thin markets but we are seeing a global shift in the market place. Nearly all the pairs have doubled their ATR's and levels that once was a confident play have become a roll of the dice it seems. As I said, I have tracked trades on this site and proved that price does it's thing over and over, but because of the current conditions I find myself cutting trades much too early. My account growth has slowed and most times I don't even want to look at the market, much less trade it. Am I losing my passion for this business? I don't believe that is the case. I truly think that I have finally tapped into the mental state that a trader must have to finally see true success. I find myself looking at the market and thinking of placing a trade but feel more comfortable than ever staying on the side lines, even through the frustration. Most times I watch price action and can fold my hands without feeling the need to take a trade. I don't like what I am seeing, therefore it does not entice me into the market. Of course I am still progressing and probably always will need to be on guard for that dice roller that use to be present inside of me. There have been a few times, although they don't happen that often any more, that I have felt a temptation to jump into the market. One such time was when the interest rate decision came from the Bank of England. They dropped interest rates much more than expected and I saw the pair start to dramatically drop. After a close below a key low, I was watching for the retest and was licking my chops. After the retest I thought about entering the trade short, but THEN....I considered the risk and walked away from my pc. I felt proud of myself. I was in a situation that in the past might have lured me in. The announcement sure appeared to be in my favor, but after that drop, it did the opposite of what I expected. When I checked the charts later in the day, it had gone up another 100 pips and I would have lost the trade. Looking on that situation and a few others like it where I did not enter the market, I have come to the conclusion that I did not make the choices that I use to make because I focused on the risk more than the reward. I have been saying something that maybe I have written in the blog before or someone else has actually said, I don't know, but it's true none the less....expect to win but prepare to lose. When I "prepare" myself to possibly lose a trade, I am finding certain trades become less and less appealing. I find myself not wanting to be in the market as much. I do not frown upon other traders who may enjoy being in the market a lot and scalping for pips, as long as they use risk and trade management. That is the ultimate key. But for me, right now I am content to stay on the sidelines and wait for the next good opportunity...whenever that might be, and even then I may just remain a spectator. One day the market will return to some resemblance of order but until then I must do the opposite of what all the leveraged traders have done and protect my account to trade another day, week, month, or however long it takes.

11-17 EUR/USD Trade by Rodney Guerzon

2008-11-17T05:40:00.007-05:00

This is a trade that was sent to me by a fellow trader that I met at a Chris Lori seminar in Raleigh, NC and has become a good friend over the last few months. This guy has studied and learned price action using the same techniques that Chris teaches and is doing very well for himself. Rodney and I have discussed the price behavioral aspects of trading several times and realize that this one component is a major factor from moving from amateur to professional status as a trader.Couple that with discipline and overcoming the psychological hurdles and therein lies success. He implements discipline constantly and I respect what he is accomplishing. He sent this EUR/USD trade shot and if looking at the base of support that the pair broke, Rodney traded the retest on the first attempt going with the direction of the flows. One thing that Rodney is also implementing is when you get confirmation by a closing on a 1 hour chart or above, you can take the retest of the TSR area on the very first hit and get paid the majority of the time. Rodney's picture shows exactly this type of set up as a bearish commitment candle closed a few candles before retesting the 2505 area. Another thing I noticed about this chart and something to keep in mind is how the next candle after Rodney entered dropped quickly and paid him, but if he had NOT taken profit, look how it came right back up into the range rejecting wanting to go any lower. Then, the 2505 area comes into play again as price closed with a bullish candle above the level. You can't really see it clearly on the chart but after it closed above, it made a second attempt near the 2505 but not quite reaching it before paying nearly 100 pips in a long trade. Like Chris says again and again, "you do not have to know which direction the market is going to be profitable". You just look for price to show you a level, wait for commitment one way or the other and if you can observe this over time, you will see that you can profit on these types of trades much more than you lose. I do want to stress that in this market these particular set ups are paying more pips than over the past several years, especially on the euro as it has become very volatile. The thin liquidity offers more pips because the ranges are bigger. As Chris stresses, we must change and adapt to a the current market environment and if the ranges start to get smaller, we must expect our profit to be smaller as well and adjust to that. At that point these inside the range trades may not be worth the risk because of the smaller profit potential. Right now, however there are very few patterns developing in this market. Even when they do, they seem to be 50/50. Knowing price behavior and trading that alone gives a trader a big edge in this environment and these types of trades seem to be very probable. Again, I tip my hat to Rodney for his success and I know Chris is proud of him as well. Way to go Rodney, and thanks for the contribution.

11-15 High Probabilities

2008-11-15T07:03:00.010-05:00

After nearly 4 months of journal entries on trades, there is one constant that remains the same. Price behaves the same way the majority of the time. This journal for me has actually turned into a training tool and not only for me, but for others as well. I don't mind that at all. Sharing the knowledge that I am learning, especially knowledge that produces positive results is very rewarding for me. It also keeps me on my toes. I have had other traders like Dick, Rob, Myron, Rodney, Steve, and Panos tell me that this blog has had a positive impact for them and even stumped me at times with some questions. It has helped me to dig even deeper. Patterns, range extremes, divergence- all have their place in trading. To me, price action and it's behavior becomes more clear everyday and I post these set ups only to show that it happens over and over and to re-affirm that price is the only indicator you need. One particular set up that I have noticed become one of the highest probable winners is restest of a consolidated fractal. Of course, there are always fractals, but some are so well defined that if you only traded this particular method, you could profit quite often. Rob pointed the trade on the USD/CAD out to me. I realize that I post trades that have already passed sometimes. My goal for that is to get the attention to recognize these attributes and then anticipate these to happen again. The USD/CAD one hour chart shows a clear area of consolidation of price. Support for an entire trading day held, however, the next day was broken. A quick rally to the base of support into TSR paid quickly. One that I was stalking, but missed was the EUR/CHF pair. I don't know that I have ever traded this pair but it seems to be a nice one to look at. I was looking to go short as the pair was approaching a base on the daily, which I did not post here but can be seen on a daily chart. This one hour shows an area of sensativity around 1.5157. After a big run up on 11-13, it held above that level for 4 hours before committing below and on the first retest of TSR you would have been paid 30 pips. The after math of 100 pips is always pretty to see, but you never know if you are going to get that or not. The concept that stands out to me, as taught to me by my mentors has been to get a good entry at the "right" level which I call TSR, then take profit. Usually, after a break and commitment from a key area like the 1.5157, if you take the first retest, you will get paid a high majority of the time. Even after going like the energizer bunny straight up on 11-13, when it closed above, the first retest of that area LONG paid 30+ pips. I would not want to trade long after a parabolic move, but I am just proving the point that these areas are very sensative and when price approaches them, it comes off quickly. To me, that is why locating and watching price at these areas is so important. Price does this over and over. Looking at multiple pairs, you can locate these areas and then just wait until price reaches them, then let price tell you if it is going to commit or not. It comes down to what trade is going to give you the highest probability. A trader can scalp, intraday trade, swing trade or trade any way they want but if they will look for TSR and practice this, journal this, price will validate and will be the main factor in their decision. The bodies or closings and opens, certain wicks that hit the level and come off quickly (better seen on a lower time frame) and even doji closes like seen on the USD/CAD pair shown can give a more clear picture of where the true price level that is the axis for price to hold above or break below. This will improve entries and help to secure profit sooner and quicker. Price will show us, all we have to do is watch.

11-14 Take Profit

2008-11-14T08:57:00.002-05:00

This is yet another entry to show that you do not have to know which way the market is going to be profitable. The USD/CHF pair was consolidating through the early trading day and had formed a nice dealing fractal. When I opened up the chart, I saw that price finally broke above. Although the 1 hour candle had not closed and we were only 20 minutes into the candle, I moved to a lower time frame and the 5 and 15 min. candles had closed above my TSR level. On a pull back I grabbed 24 pips. I took my profit because the New York session was just getting going and I kind of traded this set up to once again prove to myself that price behavior does this over and over. My mindset was in the moment of catching price doing what it does "most" of the time in this situation and it paid. After I exited the trade, the pair proceeded to come back into the range and continue opposite the way I traded. Once again it proves you don't have to know the direction to be profitable.

11-13 Crappy Market, Good Attitude

2008-11-13T15:18:00.007-05:00

Everything is bad I hear. Everyone is losing their rear in the market and this is a tough market environment. I agree that the environment is tough. Traders the world over are standing on the side lines, many of them because they have lost mega bucks over the last several months. Of course we have to be careful in this market. Normal trade ranges are out the window and the liquidity is very thin. Patterns seem to be non existant and trends are relentless. However, if you are patient and attentive with the presence of a positive attitude, out of the blue a trade can set up. A trade going with the sentiment, the flow and one that can pay very well. I am posting two such examples that are soley based on price action and support/resistance areas. I did not trade these set ups, but saw them very clearly after the fact ( what good is that?). My point is, some set ups are there but a trader must expect the unexpected to catch them. The psychology also comes into play when trading these setups, I think much more so than normal conditions. After relentlessly trending, there is an unexpected rally and you might think to yourself, "this thing is finally turning around" and we watch a nice set up, going with the sentiment and flows just come and go because the fear of entering this environment against such an aggressive move against the flow. I do not blame anyone for not trading in an environment they are uncomfortable with. This market is very difficult to discern most times and I am lost to what is going on. But, when I recognize a very good level of support, especially a recent level and then a break, I should be preparing for a retest of that area for it could offer a good trade. I must be within my risk parameters and even scale back more because of the very low liquidity in this market.

The first example is on the USD/CHF pair. On the daily chart, we had a clear close above fractal resistance and then the very next day a retest. Looking on the 15 minute chart, a clearer entry can be seen. On the AUD/USD pair, a clear break and hold below support and a retest late in the session. This can happen when you least expect it but can offer a bounce or even a resuming of the trend. I do agree that this market environment can kill accounts, but keeping a positive mindset and waiting on just the right thing can offer some money making opportunities.

11-11 Price, Price, Price

2008-11-11T06:30:00.007-05:00

Many times over the last 3 years I have been confused about my trading set ups. I have tried to make something out of nothing and traded when I didn't have very many reasons to do so. Much of this was due to not truly understanding price action. The main understanding of that became apparant to me a few months ago and has started to stand out to me more and more as I saw the same thing happen over and over again. There will be times the market will not do what I anticipate, but if I let price show me and confirm that there is a true set up there, I will win much more than I lose, and that will continue to put profit into my account. I think that understanding price begins with knowing where the fractals (dealing ranges) are and understanding where True Support and Resistance is in relation to those fractals. Once I can determine this and I can see a key consolidation and the a break and hold by price, a trade can be placed on the retest of the level with confidence that the trade will pay a high majority of the time. An example can be seen on this USD/CHF 15 minute chart as the price traded to the highs of the year, but could not hold and broke down, first by breaking a consolidation (fractal) and confirming by holding below for some period of time. A retest of the support area offered a trade and paid quickly. Understanding this can transform anyone's trading and has helped mine in so many areas. I am so thankful to Chris Lori for really forcing me to focus on this. Understanding price action and how it behaves and then knowing what to look for can keep a trader out of a lot of bad trades, not to mention the patience and discipline to wait until you see these kind of patterns.

11-6 Locating True Support Resistance

2008-11-06T05:59:00.013-05:00

It has become very apparent to me that locating the right area of support and resistance is one of the most vitale keys of a good trade set up. TSR may not seem to be well defined but looking closer and focusing on longer time frames can give a definite price the pair has struggled with and has been sensative to and help with a good entry. Looking at the AUD/USD can certainly prove this analysis. After the daily candle closed above the fractal resistance on 11-

4 (CHART A), it now showed that it had committed to holding above. That does not mean it's going to the moon. It just showed me that if I would find the TSR that it had committed above, I could certainly put the odds in my favor of a winning trade with minimal draw down. I looked at an area it could now use as support. The 38% retracment of the move from the lows on the day lined up nicely with the TSR I had chose based on candle closings, wicks and the majority of an area of daily highs (1 hr chart B).

I set an alert for .6860 or so and got alerted. A trading partner had also looked at this with me and we agreed that .6835 is the true price. The low of the day was .6831 before moving up to retest the previous days high for a run over over 200 pips. After that I observed that price did not want to commit above those highs. From the methodology Chris teaches, price was at the extremes of the range and did not want to go outside, for whatever reason, yet I was still looking to go long on this pair as it still seemed to me to be bullish with that close above TSR yet again on the daily chart. I located another area by looking a little closer to see what the pair may seek out as the next likely area for a pull back. I set my line at .6697 or so and got up to see that the pair has hit it almost to the pip. Looking at this chart (4 hr chart C),

it is a clearly defined area the price has struggeled to go through nearly every time is has come into contact with it over the last 5 weeks. The thing I like is the higher highs and higher lows showing a bullish flow at the moment which puts the odds more in my favor. Locating these areas are of upmost importance in my trading success. Combined with risk management, discipline and trade management to secure profits, even in a very low liquid market I can still see areas that give good opportunities, I just have to wait on them a little more and let the set up define itself. Although I did not trade either one of these, just knowing that price has went to my TSR and offered a good profit builds confidence in the ability to understand TSR price points. I am also keeping in mind that it has come back down below the previous TSR and the daily highs that was resistance earlier this week and closed on a daily chart. Right now it is in the middle of the range of the highs and lows of the week, but it did make a new high this week and has not taken out the low as of yet. I will observe to see what price may offer.

11-5 Possible GBP/USD set up UPDATE

2008-11-05T12:23:00.003-05:00

I am stalking this gbp/usd possible gartley pattern set up for a short trade. The level seems to be 1.6250 and there are a nice confluence of fibs there as well. I don't know if it will achieve the level today, but if it doesn't then I will regroup as there could be a larger gartley building on the 4 hour chart. UPDATE...as of this morning, 11-6, price has not reached the area but could do so today. Still watching to see if this is a possibility.

11-5 GBP/CAD and EUR/USD

2008-11-05T12:09:00.005-05:00

After looking at several good setups last night, some of which came to offer very good trades, I focused on a couple of pairs that were setting up nicely. The GPB/CAD, which I don't trade that often lately because of the HUUUUUUGE spread, was in my opinion, too good to pass up even with a larger spread. After a day of consolidation at new lows, I got a close above TSR as seen on the 15 min chart. I entered the trade and within the hour had secured a nice profit. I am hoping this will turn into somewhat of a position trade with all of my profit already out and only 10% remaining. The next set up happened on the eur/usd. After a close above TSR and with the flows of the week up, I waited on a retest of the level that the euro had struggled with for the last few weeks, the 1.3000 area. After a confirmed bullish close above, I took the retest of the area. The TSR was really at 1.2980-90 but the trade paid 20+and I got stopped out with just a few pips.

11-4 EUR/USD TRADE

2008-11-05T12:06:00.002-05:00

On this particular trade I lost. Losing is part of the game and my level didn't hold. I was looking at shorting the eur/usd at 2965 as it came straight up 500 pips. I thought my level was good and was based merely on SR which I guess I could have been a little more attentive to the fibs, but the market decided against me. I was stopped out for a loss...NEXT!

10-31 Trick or Treat Trade? UPDATE

2008-10-31T11:43:00.004-04:00

Eyeing this usd/chf set up, there is a gartley going into what I anticipate could be the last leg of a last ditch attempt before this pair falls which is many times the case in BBB patterns. There is a bearish gartley (79 and 162) lining up and into major congestion. I have a limit for 1.1632 and a larger stop. The swissy has not been erratic like the euro or cable during all this market hysteria so this could prove to be a good set up. Time and the market will tell. UPDATE... turns out this was a treat trade, but was bitter at first. A larger stop was the key here as it flew past my initial level but honored it none the less and profit of 25 pips on most of the position. Mr. Bernanke started speaking at 2 pm and my remainder was history as my stop was near entry.

10-30 GBP/USD Trade Set Up (not taken) UPDATED

2008-10-30T16:47:00.003-04:00

I was observing the market and watching the gbp/usd. After a huge rally (over 1000 pips) a quick drop and some volatility set up what seemed to be the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders reversal pattern. One reason I did not trade this is the nature of the gbp/usd lately. set ups like these are very nice and in normal market conditions would be a no brainer, but in this market, nothing is a no brainer. UPDATED... After this writing, within 2 hours this trade was in positive territory for 100+ pips

10-30 AUD/USD Trade UPDATED

2008-10-30T16:35:00.005-04:00

Of course this market gets me a little freaked out with all the wild moves it's making, but one thing I know for sure, I must protect myself at all times but with patience and waiting on the right level, a set up will occur. Late US session I was analyzing the charts and checked out the AUD/USD. I noticed what seemed to be some weakness around the 6800 level and when it seemed to be breaking I traded a small pull back into my area. That trade paid 25 pips and stopped me out of 20% at my entry. I noticed however, that there appeared to be a much better level at 6836. I also had a 127R line up with that level and it was a pretty nice support level earlier in the day. As of this writing I am up 2 pips with a fill at 6834. The market CAN do anything but hopefully it will go in my direction. I am mainly trying to trade off of price in this market and thats why TSR really gives me the confidence to take the trade. UPDATED... The second trade at 6834 paid out a total of 92 pips.

10-29 USD/CHF Trade UPDATED

2008-10-29T09:34:00.004-04:00

After watching the Euro taking off like the space shuttle, I was hesitant to trade it against such a strong move. It did pay from the level I was watching but I chose instead to trade it's little brother, the usd/chf pair. After seeing the euro move 5 cents on the day, the swissy had only moved a quarter of that. I could see some breakdowns starting to form on the longer time frames and when the 4 week trend line was broken and a closed below support, I took notice. I scaled to a 15 minute, waited for a rally and then traded it at 1.1541 short. My better entry was 1.1580 but it was getting late and I didn't know if it would go there. I took the trade, secured some profit and left a larger stop. After getting up the this morning I was in profit by 44 pips and took some more out at 74. I don't know what will happen next, but it seems to be turning the corner and with the euro showing strength once again, maybe the swissy is lagging. I hope so :). UPDATED... This position was totally closed out with just under 300 pips of profit.

10-22 EUR/CAD Trade

2008-10-22T16:42:00.002-04:00

Late in the day, this pair had climbed to a major level on the daily chart. When I sat down to my pc, I changed it over to the 5 min and traded price on the fractal break, where support became resistance again. I grabbed 18 pips and closed 100%. The spread widens so much on this one between the US and Asian session, I didn't want to give back profit because of thin liquidity.

10-17 USD/CHF fractal break

2008-10-17T11:27:00.002-04:00

I traded this one based on the break of the intraday support that had been holding price. After the break I took the retest and it paid 30+. It did not break away, but in these market conditions, 30 pips are, well... precious!

10-17 One Loss, One Win...Right on Both

2008-10-17T09:43:00.005-04:00

Ok, there were two trades I took today, proving to myself that I truly believe (now) the market can do anything and I have no control in the outcome. I know that sounds crazy because I always knew the market COULD do anything but just didn't believe it would. I was eyeing the AUD/USD pair. After a break of a fractal and close on the h hour time frame, I traded it long. I will say, that I was aggressive on this trade and had a tighter stop because of it. Looking back, I had two levels to enter. One was at 1.6825 and th other at 1.6810. I based this trade soley off TSR. Well, I entered the trade at the closer level, knowing I was at more risk. The problem is I entered with a larger position size by accident so I had to tighten my stop. Well, the market chose it's level and I got stopped out.

The thing that makes me feel great about this is that I did not let the loss get into my head enough to keep me out of another set up. I did this intentionally to overcome any fear that would keep me thinking objectively about the next trade. I also had been watching the EUR/USD and it seemed to have been forming a bottom. On this one, I felt very comfortable as with the AUD/USD coming down deeper, the euro seemed to follow and came right into my level. THIS TIME I used the position size and stop I was comfortable with. The market reacted to the level and I was able to secure a profit on this trade. I have to say, I did feel some anxiety entering the market so soon, but I was proud that I took a trade that met my criteria, was prepared to take a loss if the market deemed it so, and did not let that affect my execution to the point of backing away. I know that I must be careful not to revenge trade but this was not the case. I was watching both of these pairs for the set up I wanted to see, which was a moving out of the longer term fractal, into a new one and coming back into my level. As of this writing the AUD/USD took off another 100 pips in the direction I anticipated and I am still in the euro with profit in my wallet. Boy, there are a lot of things to put together at once and a mistake can cost you, even if what you anticipate comes to pass. The good thing is, I recognize all of this now and am implementing it consistantly.

10-16 GBP/JPY set up

2008-10-16T15:36:00.013-04:00

I had set an alert earlier in the day for a possible set up on the gbp/jpy. After getting the alert, I observed price approach my level. I did NOT have my fib drawn to see the 127R or I likely would have traded it there. I was looking for 176.20 but the high hit the figure and then fell 100

pips. Choosing trades using TSR and fractals rocks and combine that with retracement extensions and the odds tilt pretty good in my favor.

10-16 EUR/JPY Trade

2008-10-16T09:00:00.003-04:00

This trade was purley TSR and additional confirmation from an extension (thanks for those extensions Chris!!!). After the drop late on 10-15, this pair was rallying before the open of the US Equities market, and rallying right into a pretty strong price level. I traded it on a surge to my level and banked some profit with 20+ and left around 10% in the market. With the equities all over the board, this could stop me out, or I could be in for the ride of my life...WHO KNOWS?

All I KNOW is I traded what I saw, I managed the trade and the market was generous enough to give me some profit.

10-15 USD/CHF Trade

2008-10-15T10:27:00.003-04:00

A simple trade, but yet still profound to me on the break of a fractal and TSR. After a close of the 11:00 GMT candle below TSR, I saw the rally within the first 15 minutes of the hour and shorted the trade at 1.1353. I took out most of my position with 20 and then closed the remainder after I did not get the "shove" that I wanted in my direction. I think this pair is looking more bearish but it is yet to be confirmed. That is why I have come to realize money management is so crucial. I made money on this trade, yet it could continue with the macro trend and take off to new highs. Like Chris says, "you don't have to know where it's going to make money." So TRUE!!!

10-13 USD/CHF Trade ( I am right no matter what)

2008-10-14T06:42:00.010-04:00

I can say with confidence that "I am right, no matter if I win or lose a trade." This may sound like I am confused. How can I be right when I lose, if I think I can win? The answer is, if I TRULY believe that the market can do anything and I have no control of the market, then I am right no matter if I lose a trade or win one. After going back to reading "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas, a little light bulb flickered enough for me to see some things. OK, let me not kid myself. Actually, it was a blazing spot light that I saw and for whatever reason NOW, it hit me like 2 tons of bricks. For three years I have been in competition with the market. I have made great strides, in my opinion, toward my goal of consistantly winning trades and have results to show my progress, but the mental aspect has plagued me over and over concerning my approach to the market overall. I am competitive to be sure, but to think that I can "win" over an "opponent" with such deception, volume of cash available to it at any time and irratic if not surprising behavior is absolutely obsurd, yet, I felt that I was actually in competition to try and do so. Nothing could be further from the truth. What I have recently realized, (no matter how simple it was yet I could not concieve it) is that I am ALWAYS right when I get into a trade if I follow these beliefs:

1. I can only know what a technical pattern or set up looks or feels like.
2. I can only know how I am going to manage my trade specifically.
3. I can only know how much I am going to risk
4. I can only know that the market is capable of doing ANYTHING.

When I realize this, I am right everytime I enter the market. The things I don't know, that may cause me to lose money on a trade are:

1. I don't know when someone else is going to enter or exit the market or HOW BIG their position may be
2. I don't know what fundamental news events could occur at any moment and affect the market.
3. I don't know what can happen next on a global scale to have impact on the market.

I also know that it is imperative to protect myself with low risk exposure because of what I DON'T KNOW. This is simple to say the least, but is very hard to implement (at least it was for me and the statistics build a case for 95% of all traders). I can say NOW that because of recent market action, I DO BELIEVE that anything is possible in this market and now I make it a must to approach every trade in that state of mind. When I get ready to enter the market all I can know is my plan, my entry, my exit and most importantly my risk, and I MUST BE WILLING to realize that my risk amount is very likely to be taken from me at any moment. When I do come to terms with this, trading is not about fear, but about letting the market unfold at ITS WILL. All I can do is put as many probabilities in my favor as possible, and I do believe by doing this I can profit from the market more than I give to it. That is the HOLY GRAIL. There is only so much analysis I can do, the rest is in the market's control. The main thing is that I know proper analysis sets me up to grab profits from the market, but if I do not, I am not wrong, the market just proved to my why I am right, that yes, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. With that being said, I approached this USD/CHF trade in that mental aspect, knowing that this market has been irratic at best. Although there have been some set ups, they have been hard to recognize (at least to me) but this one seemed to be unfolding to me. I prepared my proper mindset and traded this possible head and shoulders pattern. The 1 hour chart showed me a rejection of the level I have keyed in on and I just traded what I saw. I waited on a pull back using the 15 minute chart and got filled at 1.1399. I took profits out at 22 pips and moved my stop to entry. I got stopped out by maybe one pip on the remainder of my position but that's trading. The market proved that it was in control and I knew that was the case before I moved my stop to entry, but that was my decision. The market made it's decision and then chose to fall 100 pips over the next several hours. Oh well, I am excited over what transpired. It only shows me once again that I was right and can be right on every trade because the only thing I really KNOW is that you can't know what is going to happen next, but you don't have to, to be profitable.

9-30 Trade on USD/JPY 4 hour Fractal break retest

2008-09-30T06:17:00.005-04:00

As of this writing, I just took a trade on the USD/JPY pair. I opened the chart and saw a rally going back to previous support on a broken fractal. After a rally of 170 pips, it was going into the TSR I located. I didn't even have to draw a fib on this, as I figured I would at least get a reaction to it. I got filled at 105.17. Looking at the 1 hr chart, it is pretty easy to locate the strong area of SR that it is retesting (weekly lows of the fractal-range). I managed it off the 5 minute chart and 10 minutes after entering got a break down of the smaller fractals, a break of an intraday trendline and a quick surge that paid.

I am locked in now but left a percentage open. With risk aversion still in the market, it would be nice to see another big leg down from here. If I get stopped I think another good level to short is 105.59.

9-26 AUD/USD Fractal (TSR) Trade

2008-09-26T10:58:00.006-04:00

After some more backtesting and watching the AUD/USD range for a few days, I took note of a candle close on the 4 hour chart. After a bearish close, I waited on the retest of the TSR and traded short the retest of the former fractal now acting as resistance. I was filled at .8336, just shy of 38% retracement but a nice TSR area based on longer time frames. After the entry, I had a drawdown of 10 pips plus spread. I got a rejection of the lower (older fractal) support and got confirmation as the surges broke down the smaller fractals. This trade was trading with the overall market flow with confirmation on the longer TF.

USD/CHF Trade 9-19 (Fractals and confirmation)

2008-09-20T06:46:00.014-04:00

This trade confirmed to me that just because you miss the initial bounce at a level, does not mean you miss the trade. After speaking with other traders, I realized that letting price tell me what to do is of upmost importance. Too many times I try to get the first hit but don't realize that after that trade is over, price is not willing to give up and will come back to the area, or near it and fail once again and continue with the flow. I have come to a conclusion this week. I am of the opinion that there are key areas but there are key price points, which are much more precise. Many traders can define an area, but not the price point which leads them to more emotional decisions. If a trader can locate the key price point, even when wicks are poking through like tooth picks through plastic he can understand what price is doing. Well, needless to say, I have not been a savvy trader because I thought that once the first hit was over, the trade was done. I have seen otherwise just by observing price the last two weeks. It all comes down to fractals as Chris has shown in his course. Understanding price and the way price moves with the larger fractals is simple, yet so difficult to implement. I think there is support/resistance, which can be wicks or highs and lows, but I also have come to see that there is also "true" support/resistance which is like an axis. Price will either break on the other side and retest before continuation or it will hold and fall back into the range. Understanding this is of utmost importance to me now. By understanding what price is telling me, I am not only able to anticipate where we are likely to get a bounce, but after the bounce I can now observe with confidence, the likely next move it will make. I do this by locating TSR or true suppport resistance. TSR is profound and is like a magnet. price will be drawn to it with the bodies and certain wicks. The chart time I put in this week, just focusing on TSR has been like a light bulb turned on in a dark room. This trade I placed on the USD/CHF pair shows that just because you miss the intial bounce, does not mean the move is over. After viewing the 4 hr chart, I located a key "area". I did not trade the bounce, because I was not on the charts at the time. After looking, I saw that this pair had traveled quite a ways and was continuing to make new highs into some serious price obstacles. This was around 6am EST when I zoned into this pair. I did not know which way it was going to come out of this fractal, but was going to let price tell me. I also was not willing to buy, as I felt it had gone too far and the overall pattern on the longer time frames seem to be a bearish BBB (Bull Bear Battle) pattern. Many times the last leg of the BBB will be the one that will rally ( or in a bullish one fall) to 79% and then break in my anticipated direction with force. Knowing this, I really did anticipate one of two things. Either it will rally to a higher level of SR, which I had at 1.1310 or it would start to break down from here. The five minute chart gave me clues as it started a BBB pattern of it's on. I should not trade patterns on lower time frames unless they are setting up that way at a key area. This was the case here. The 5 min. made lower lows but could not break above the fractal and hold. I could have traded the top of the fractal but was not comfortable at this point to do so. Thus, after viewing the 1 hour chart on the candle close of the 7am EST candle, I traded the retest of the broken fractal. I never suffered drawdown. This had to be one of the best trades I have made because of the way I was able to put all my tools to use. Price had confirmed what it was going to do. Of course, it can do anything from this point, but the majority of the time, this type of trade will pay and as long as I manage properly, I will come out with profit in my account overall. The key to this is if this had been a fake, I could have likely cut my losses short because I would have been able to see price not willing to break out of this fractal. Fortunately for me and by waiting on the 1 hour close, it did what I anticipated and fell to a nice pip profit.

Focus on Fractals

2008-09-12T06:14:00.005-04:00

I have done some closer examination of fractals and how they can contribute to my trading. The longer time frame fractals are the ones that I should focus on more, then scale down to smaller time frames. It seems that many times I had been looking for wicks and not really picking out the true points of price sensativity. If I look at the opening and closing of certain candles, especially in groupings along with wicks that are rejection candles I will find where a few candle wicks line up with the full bodied candles and show me exactly what the rejection candles are having trouble with. A clear example of this is the USD/JPY chart (4 hr) where support was seen for 16 hours and then committed below. After that closing, it rallied to the true key area and a trade set up was in play. After looking at the 4 hour chart, a true entry is found with my tools on a smaller time frame.(15M)

9-1 Good Quote from Chris Lori

2008-09-01T08:42:00.005-04:00

In the month of August, I can certainly point to some good trading opportunities. However, I can also point to many more opportunities that did not fare so well. So, what does one do? Do I subject myself to trading in a low risk environment or simply play the waiting game. This quote from Chris Lori's "Face the Trader Within" kind of sums it up nicely...

Patience Pays
Our young friend, the gunslinger, goes hunting with his dad who has 30 years experience carefully stalking his prey and hunting them down. As the two of them head out toward the forest, gunslinger says to his dad; "Hey dad! Let’s run into the forest and shoot us a deer"!
Dad replies; "No, gunslinger; let’s quietly walk into the forest, hide ourselves, and wait for the deer to come out, once they are in perfect position, we shoot them all".
Patience is a key discipline of trading. It is ideal to wait for the market to move to a level of high probability to enter a trade, but waiting for the market to arrive at your prospective entry point can be no fun.
The human mind views making money as an enjoyable experience, because it inspires dreams of all the things one can have and do if they make a lot of money. For some reason, trading is considered an easy, or convenient, way to make a lot of money, but people do not resolve themselves to the fact that it is neither convenient, nor easy. In fact, people may find it so inconvenient, combined with their greedy desires to make money; they will frequently put on a trade without premise, because they are unwilling to wait for the proper time to enter a trade. They want to run into the bush and shoot at the first deer, regardless of what the probability is of hitting it.
I can assure you that this approach to trading will cause great pain, suffering and financial loss. Although the wait may seem agonizing at the time, I would prefer to endure a lengthy period of stalking a decisively good trade, rather than taking a shot in the dark and have to suffer through the pain of a poor decision. An irrational shot in the dark trade 8
typically results from focusing on greed and the thrill of making money, rather than possibility of loss and pain.
The markets will often go through a long period of consolidation or confused price action, which does not lend to good trading opportunities. If you do not have the ability to recognize and admit to the reality that the conditions for trading are undesirable, you will probably lose. If the market does not make sense to you, then stay out! On the contrary, the ability to wait through market indecision can pay very well when one side of the market begins to take control. You will end up with a twofold benefit; you will save from losing money in the choppy conditions, and you may reap considerable benefit when the market breaks out.
If you run into the market like a gunslinger and begin to shoot at anything that moves, you will probably have run out of bullets when a prime target walks right in front of you.

Becoming a good trader to me is not about wins and losses, but knowing when to trade (that will take care of the wins and losses). That has become more clear to me this month than ever. Part of becoming a good trader is accepting certain trues whether you want to or not. Being stubborn only sets you back. Chris's techniques have enabled me to grow my account consistantly. Once you are consistantly growing, you must take the next step of growth which is looking at the overall environment and recognizing whether it is a higher risk and less probable one or continue trading away. This is where I think I need to focus my efforts more, just to insure that I am the trader I need to be to bring ultimate success.

8-30- ( USD/CHF Results)

2008-08-30T09:08:00.002-04:00

My limit order on this pair short at 1.1037 seemed prove a good choice. The high on the day was 1.1037. My key area was 1.0135-40 so I went in the middle because that's where the 127R was sitting. So far, so good, the trade has already paid me and I have taken some profit. Now I will see if the BBB pattern that seems to be forming here fulfills.

8-29 USD/CHF

2008-08-29T10:01:00.002-04:00

I have been stalking this trade all week. This seems to be a riptide on the daily with confirming patterns (gartley and butterfly) at the level 1.1040. I have my limit in at 37 just to try and get in on this. The BBB on the 4 hour chart also seems to be confirming the short side. I will just see how it comes out.

8-29 Trade the Extremes

2008-08-29T06:33:00.002-04:00

After doing some backtesting last night, it has become clear to me that I have gotten away from my methodology somewhat. Of course, I still try to get a feel for the sentimentand fundamentals be aware of time of day and ATR etc. One thing I have gotten away from, for whatever reason, is just trading the extremes for a pull back into the range. I can go back and point to endless examples where a daily range was broken and then bounced at the 127, 138 or 162 retracments for some very good profits. I am not a fan of trading inside the daily range, although many successful traders can pull it off based on candle closings and fractals, but what has defined my success has been trading on the outside of bigger ranges and I am going to get back to that way of trading. The August thin liquidity has caused me to lose a few trades that I wouldn't normally lose and to be quite honest, shaken me up a bit... but being more patient to wait on some consilidation on the larger time frames has shown to provide good trades. Confidence, or lack of it has a profound effect. The odds are heavily in my favor if I stick to my plan. This I will do.

8-27 MINDSET VS REALITY

2008-08-28T15:48:00.009-04:00

Ok, I have looked at several trades this week, and even saw more set ups than I posted here in the journal that all paid. Not one losing trade set up, yet I am scared to pull the trigger for the ones that do. I realize that I am letting the mindset of fear become part of my trading instead of viewing the reality of the market. I have been listening to Chris on PTC and know that he is correct in being very careful in approaching trades in this market. Still yet, there have been several high probability set ups that adhered to my approach and technical parameters that I did not take. I look back and wonder why it is sometimes we battle this type of fear. I know that losing is part of the game so I must realize that I will lose from time to time. I try to trade on the extremes of the range which has lent itselft to some good trades over the last two weeks. I know the market is making new lows but waiting on confirming patterns when the market is stretched out will win much more than lose. Another thing I must consider is the flows and sentiment. The GBP/USD had a very good rally to a key low that would have paid well and it was going with the general flows. A look on the 15 minute chart at the key low of 8400 where support becomes resistance. A small pattern around this level (BBB) where the lows are getting lower and the highs are as well, with one last attempt at that high was a perfect entry. When you let your mind play games, you lose site of what is taking place right in front of your eyes. Of course, some traders catch moves like these because they trade what they see instead of what they think. Hmmm, reality vs mindset. Seeing is believing.

8-28 (8-27 Trade Results)

2008-08-28T09:56:00.002-04:00

Oh well, I missed again. I was looking to go short at 1.1030 on this head and shoulders pattern with the USD/CHF pair. I knew we were in a key area, but got a little greedy, plus I had no internet connection and was watching price action on my smart phone. I just passed on this one, but another trader I know took it and made some nice pippage. Oh well, again, that's trading.

8-27 Looking at 2 Trades

2008-08-27T10:45:00.007-04:00

The first set up is very close to my entry. Right now it is 10:45 EST and near London close. The USD/CHF may be setting up a head and shoulders pattern. Something I have observed is that the probability of this type of pattern fulfilling goes up if the neck is tilted in the direction of your trade. My entry on this trade will be near the highs of the right shoulder at 1.1030 (short). I will wait and see.

The other trade set up is on the USD/JPY pair. I don't trade this pair that often but a nice BBB (bull bear battle) pattern seems to be unfolding. I might would consider this trade near the 79% of the overall move and at the back side of this trend line. I mainly am looking at where support became resistance at this level and how price has struggled here on the longer time frames. I think 110.10-20 area may present a very good trade.

8-26 Looking back, at least a few trades

2008-08-26T18:45:00.007-04:00

I realize that trading this market in August has been tough, to say the least. That being said, if I will stand back and realize that there can be trades come about that will pay much more often than they lose, then overall these trades will pay off. Today for instance, looking at the AUD/USD there was a nice trade. Of course all of these trades do not pay 100 pips but I can remember a time when I was happy with 10 pips a day. What happened to that LOL? Anyway, the yearly low on 1-22 was 8510. If you look at the weeks range and traded it there. There was a 138R of last weeks range and a 127 Ext. of the previous weeks range aligned nicely within a few pips of the yearly low. The low today was 8491. Again, I know this is against the trend but more often than not, if you manage these trades properly, they will pay and this one gave a good 50+ pip bounce.

GBP/USD set up a nice trade intraday, although this is not a set up that I normally trade. I sat there and watched price go to previous support, a yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily low, after it had travelled 160+ pips then retraced 80+ back to previous support and the 62% retracement, but still decided to pass.

8-26 (8-25 Results on GBP/USD Possible Trade)

2008-08-26T09:01:00.003-04:00

Oh well, I had my level picked and the high came as close at 10-15 pips of my entry. Going with the overall flows seemed to fair well for this area, but didn't quite get to my entry. That's trading.

8-25 GBP/USD Possible Trade

2008-08-25T09:41:00.002-04:00

GBP/USD could set up for a good short trade if it reaches the 8600 area. This shot shows a 50% retracment there, along with S/R and a 162R there as well. The daily range would place this trade at a 200 pip travel distance. This may prove to be a good London/US close trade. We will see

8-25 (8-24 Results)

2008-08-25T09:33:00.002-04:00

It seems as though what the charts were telling me proved to be true.

EUR/USD- didn't get quite to my entry at 1.4686 but did make it very close at 1.4695
GBP/USD- Butterfly pattern did pay at the 138R area and rallied 150+ pips
USD/JPY- 110.00-110.25 seemed to be the cap so far as this pair seems to still seems to have room to fall and so far has fallen 50+ pips from the 110.00 area
USD/CHF- BBB again seems to be fulfilling on this pair falling off around 100 pips from Sundays high
AUD/USD- Another BBB pattern that is showing signs of bullishness. After pulling back between 79 and 100% of the daily range

8-24 UPDATED

2008-08-23T14:18:00.007-04:00

EUR/USD- 4750 seems to be a strong level acting as support and resistance for the last couple of weeks. If it holds and rallies, then I would be looking to buy pull backs as the sentiment seems to have changed either from profit taking or dollar fundamentals.
LONG trade- possibly at the 4686 level which would indicate a BBB pattern forming.
SHORT trade- a bearish gartley would form at 4983 and aligns with the high on 8-13

GBP/USD- With this pair being very bearish I am cautious to take long trades but it does seem to be oversold on longer time frames. This is a good environment for a riptide trade below the yearly low and right near the figure of 8500.
LONG trade- possibly a butterfly pattern or riptide depending on timing.
SHORT trade- I do not look to go short at this point unless I have a rally going after some daily highs

USD/JPY- Another BBB pattern seems to have formed on yet another USD cross. We had a retracent to the 79% level on Friday at 110.13 so this also could set up for a false break or sell off and give an attempt to short the market
SHORT trade - 110.00 seems to be a very strong area. I will watch for weakness.

USD/CHF- Very similar to the USD/JPY in that we have a BBB look. Also had a rally to a key level on Friday. A move to 1.10-1.1005 would be a 79% move from the monthly high and a 127R from Thursdays intraday high of 1.0971. Again timing would be key to this trade
SHORT trade- 110.05 again depending on time of day

AUD/USD- This pair has, like the other USD pairs fallen so far that there should be some type of retracement. I am bullish this pair and will look for pull backs at key areas .

8-21 GBP/JPY

2008-08-23T12:32:00.005-04:00

This set up is one I was watching as it was going into the new day on the 22nd. Chris had told us on PTC that he saw further weakness in gbp/jpy before it dropped and I was looking at capitalizing on a pull back. I had an initial short limit order at 203.84 around 18:00 GMT but did not get filled. Once it went into a small fractal, I removed the order. I had seen that that 204.40-50 area should offer a good trade. Previous support was seen at that level and I felt was strong as it had taken 2 days to break below (19-20th) and hold. Once I saw the drop of nearly 300 pips and then a rally going after the days high, I thought that this would offer a good opportunity. My reason for looking at 203.84 initially was that it was a 127R of the intraday swing aligning with 62% of the last daily swing. Knowing that many times the gbp likes to go into the main area of congestion and being in the Asian session, the next level at 204.53 had even more confluences. The trade paid 35 pips on the first hit and then fell to offer a good profit before retracing.

8-21 GBP/USD

2008-08-23T04:47:00.009-04:00

After looking back, it turns out that another trade I missed might have been the trade of the week instead of the Euro trade I mentioned earlier. On Thurs. the 21st, the GBP/USD had rallied and approached the high of the week late in the session. The daily range was extended, it was late in the US session and approaching the 38% retracement of a very generous fall from the previous weeks. The 138 retracment of a significant swing aligned itself nicely to the 38% retracment . I would have entered short in the market at 1.8794 but the high only reached 92. This week's candle closed very bearish at the bottom of the range for the week but it remains to be seen if I missed a very good position trade by only 2 pips. None the less, it goes to show that waiting on the market to make sense and trading it at key levels with other factors on your side will make for very good profits.

8-20 EUR/USD

2008-08-23T04:25:00.009-04:00

This is the first post I will make on this blog. After several weeks of a relentless and mountable move by dollar bulls, it seems the market has found some stability. I observed several good set ups this week , but one stands in my mind as the best. On Wed. the EUR/USD formed the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. I missed my entry by 11 pips as it did not get to the gartley pattern entry I was looking for. The low was 1.4671 and I was waiting on an entry long at 1.4660. As you can see, it would have been a very nice trade. I did however take a counter trend trade at the end of the day getting filled short at 1.4907. Previous resistance became support along with a fib confluence of 62% and 79% ( not shown on chart)of different swings. That was a profitable trade